Is the MLB Rookie HR Record Tainted?

Is the MLB Rookie HR Record Tainted? Lets take a look and see what the #’s and data tell us. I will then give the answer.

Pete Alonso breaking Aaron Judge's rookie record is worth ...

I will first note look how much bigger Judge is then Alonzo in that picture. He’s so much bigger its not even funny!

First we’ll look at Aaron Judge:

So Aaron Judge hit a RECORD 52 HR’s as a rookie in 2017. He had no juiced ball to swing at. As such his # still stands.

What if we Moved Judge into Citi Field for his Rookie year? Here’s a park comparison (SOURCE):

Citi Field vs Yankee Stadium III - Amazin' Avenue

Judge still hits 50 HR’s. He loses 5 to right field but has 5 to Left Center where Yankees Stadium is deeper.

Also bare in mind Before Pete Alonzo’s rookie season the RF fence was really, REALLY brought in. All Citi Field fences were. Making RF barely deeper than in Yankee Stadium.

If you put Judge’s road game in the Al East into the NL East it gets better for judge.

  1. Fenway is less hitter friendly then Citizen’s Bank Park.
  2. Camden Yards is BARELY more HR friendly then Nats Park. By 1%.
  3. Trust Park (Braves) is = HR friendliness to The Rodgers Center.
  4. Marlins Park is 100’s of times more HR friendly then the worst park in the Game the Trop.

Total DIVISION Ball Park effect +5 HR’s.

When you factor in the NL has worse pitching and all other NL for AL Parks Judge’s HR total finally goes WAY UP to 64 his rookie year (Compare to Judge’s now teammate, Giancarlo Stanton’s 59 HR Season the same season).

Finally Judge needs no adjustment for Juiced Ball effect.

Now we’ll look at Pete Alonzo:

He hit 53 HR’s in 2019 WITH THE AID OF JUICED BALLS! First sign of tainted stats.

Now lets move Alonzo to the AL. Again here’s the diagram (Not accurate as it does not show moved in fences. again: Source):

Citi Field vs Yankee Stadium III - Amazin' Avenue

First stadium effect. Alonzo lose 8 HR’s to Left Center as Yankee Stadium is far deeper there. He hardly ever drives the ball to RF and thus only gains 1. Already down to 47 HR’s.

When we factor in posing Parks in the AL East for NL East remember:

  1. Fenway is less hitter friendly then Citizen’s Bank Park.
  2. Camden Yards is BARELY more HR friendly then Nats Park. By 1%.
  3. Trust Park (Braves) is = HR friendliness to The Rodgers Center.
  4. Marlins Park is 100’s of times more HR friendly then the worst park in the Game the Trop.

As such he loses 13 more HR’s. Now down to 34.

When we calculate all other opposing Parks it has very little effect as he only loses 3 more HR’s putting him at 31.

Now an adjustment has to be made for the juiced balls as well. JUDGE HAD NONE TO SWING AT!

The Juiced balls were caused by lowering the seems thus drastically reducing drag in the air and thus really increasing ball flight. Its an estimated 15′ extra length on ball flight.

After factoring this in from 53 HR’s he drops all the way to 28. Some of those fall off and thus with starting at 31 HR’s he falls to 18 total HR’s.

I can unequivocally state YES THE ROOKIE MLB RECORD IS AS TAINTED AS THEY COME! Alonzo had a blatantly unfair advantage over judge.

This is in no ways fair to Aaron Judge. The only possible way for it to end up fair is Pete Alonzo playing for the Yankees at some point or voiding out his unearned ill gotten HR’s.

Again YES THE MLB ROOKIE HR RECORD IS 100% TAINTED!

BY: ADAM KING

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